Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 02/11
The Market is broadening out, showing constructive action accross the board.
Good evening!
I hope everyone enjoys the Super Bowl tonight :)
When the market & trend is strong like right now, I don’t want to overcomplicate things and assume we’ll continue. We won’t go in a straight line, and we have to expect some healthy red days soon based on ST breadth & momentum indicators, but overall, I am not trying to anticipate or predict anything other than a trend continuation. We’ll assess how the selling comes in due time, and our stop loss are there for this feedback.
My weekend sector’s review is showing interesting & constructive action. We have our recent sector leaders still in a solid uptrend and showing no weekly sign of exhaustion yet: SMH, SKYY, CIBR, IGV, IYT, AIQ, and XHB.
Along these themes, I see multiple interesting setups formed from base-level retest & bounce, or base breakout. This is another sign of potential broadening this week as more & more sectors might participate in this rally.
The top focus for a potential continuation & momentum push this week are BLOK, TAN, IPO, CARZ, XBI, JETS, XRT, XHE, IBUY, and PXE.
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Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
Another slow & steady follow-through in the broad market on Friday.
That was a 4th consecutive green day, as we push from the 21dma retest & breakout from the DTL of the PB we've made in the last few weeks.
Price is still above all kma's, but not at a new high yet.
MCSI curled up! Now we need some good participation to cross the 10dma and go back on a full GREEN market signal
ST/MT_momo is still trending higher
5-day ratio now approaching 2, so we might have some gas in the tank, but I'll look to hold on buying soon as it might begin to be choppy in laggard as we're getting extended & overbought ST.
The trend is up, and until we have red flags, we must ride the wave!
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
New high.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
New high.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
2004$ key level & current PB DTL breakout. This looks really constructive for the broad market.
OTHERS
RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF)
That’s a follow-through (shy)
IWO (Small-cap growth)
Breakout on huge volume. With a weekly stage 1 base & 10wma retest & bounce setup. It looks very constructive for risk assets & growth stocks.
IWC (Micro-cap growth)
Breakout on huge volume. With a weekly stage 1 DTL & 10wma retest & bounce setup. It looks very constructive for risk assets & micro-cap stocks.
ARKK
Strong breakout, but getting into the base area. I am watching for a reversal.
Market Internals
Market Breadth & Extension (Stocks > 5, 20,50 & 200dma - short to long term view)
VST breadth flat around 60%
ST breadth flat around 60%
MT/LT breadth curled back down & new lows. The negative divergence is still here.
Now that’s the structure breakdown I wanted to see on the VIX. It adds a lot of conviction for me, as long we are able to follow-through from here.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Rejected & back below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Still in that range as we’re basing above kma’s and as we retest the channel UTL.
US dollar index (DXY)
104.23$ false breakout? Potential Lower High today.
New low & still below all kma’s. Everything looks constructive and risk-on here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC continued to push over the wknd, with a potential 49.1k retest underway.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Strong day for BLOK/Crypto, along the majority of leading themes
Solar might be an interesting turnaround setup to watch closely
Biotech might follow-through and breakout here
Regional Banks good action as well.
Overall good breadth expansion with strong action in Micro/Small/Mid & growth
Leading themes charts (rank sorted):
1 Semiconductors SMH
New high, leading.
2 Blockchain Technology BLOK
2 strong day push for the wedge breakout & base level reclaim. Now that’s it’s confirming the breakout, it will be on my radar for a low risk entry/PB in the next few days or weeks. Time to be patient & stalk for an entry.
3 Cloud Computing SKYY
New high, leading.
4 Software IGV
New high, leading.
5 Cybersecurity CIBR
New high, leading.
6 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
New high, leading.
7 Homebuilders XHB
New high, leading.
8 IPO IPO
Reclaim of base level. ST extended, but constructive for MT move.
9 Gaming & eSports ESPO
New high.
10 Transport IYT
New high.
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
Strong action from the weekly theme scan this wknd.
We have our recent leaders still in a solid uptrend and showing no weekly sign of exhaustion yet: SMH SKYY CIBR IGV IYT AIQ XHB
Along these themes, I see multiple interesting setups formed from base-level retest & bounce, or base breakout. This is another sign of potential broadening this week as more & more sectors might participate in this rally.
Top focus for a potential continuation & momentum push this week are: BLOK TAN IPO CARZ XBI JETS XRT XHE IBUY PXE
This looks good, but as always, we'll want to see price confirmation this week.
FOCUSLIST
BVN (Long ) daily/W/65m - Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA - Alert: 15.3, SL: 15
Same HTF setup which didn't trig on Friday. We are getting really tight below the pivot
AMD (Long ) daily/W/65m - ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES, INC. - Alert: 172.97, SL: 168.6
Top idea for me tomorrow. Still building its consolidation above the 21dma & with higher lows as we digest the recent 100%+ run up from last earnings. We made 2 inside days that we tried to breakout on Friday, but we closed back into it.
FL (Long ) daily/W/65m - FOOT LOCKER, INC. - Alert: 29.63, SL: 28.64
Retail is a theme that is picking up speed and to watch, imo. We've had some names running last week, and we could see some late movers that have great setups moving this week. FL is building a wedge at the 50dma with higher lows & stacked kma's. Looks ready
GPS (Long ) daily/W/65m - THE GAP, INC. - Alert: 20.31, SL: 19.73
Another retail name showing great action on the latest them digestion, and right at stacked kma's as well.
ENPH (Long ) daily/W/65m - ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. - Alert: 124.1, SL: 117.3
Adding this solar name based on my sectors & themes review. The potential double bottom in TAN looks interesting, along enph recent leadership & earnings EP. I like how we built tight action inside EP day, while we re-retested the day's high pivot on Friday. I would look at a 124.10$ pivot reclaim for an entry.
SCANS
10dma pullback scan
None
21dma pullback scan
BVN M MRVL FL GPS TKO KBH KSS FTRE
50dma pullback scan
None
Continuation breakout scan
None
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
OLLI RELY XP JOBY
Last week's top gainers - study material
PLTR CFLT NET MSTR COHR XPO CYBR MDB SONO SPHR TXG WFRD PATH FROG HIMS MNDY DOCN MKSI CELH LEVI MAC SHOP ACHR GNRC RBLX IOT NVDA ARVN CRWD QS RPD VSCO ITCI SPOT ALGN ATI CBAY HOG S PLAY GLBE FSLY BYON HIW GTLB CLS LUV SNOW
Themes: Tech, Software, Consumer, Materials, Semis. Cyber
This week it was an earnings EP galore. All over the scans as they worked very well. Let's see if they can follow through.
Lot of names just continue trending from mid-January opp. window. Lesson here is don't get too early to sell because they are hard to get back in. (MDB, MNDY NVDA CRWD FSLY CLS)
Missed a lot of the biggest movers last week by not being in the right names despite them being in FL ( DOCN GLBE GTLB CELH)
Caught PATH & IOT at least, but need to see why didn't execute on those above.
We are in the right names, guys; we need to continue identifying and executing these setups without jumping out too soon. Playing EP might be something to add in the future as well.
Again....study this list & scan EACH WKND, and find the correlation with your routine and what you can improve to put you in these setups week after week. That's how you improve your game.
What worked, and what do they have in common that I can replicate?
Those were the top performing liquid stocks, we want to catch those!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
It's another solid day to close the week.
Trim party at the open, with STNE 2 & 5R target hit (thank god right lol)
BRZE 5R hit now on runner
New pos. XBI with 2R hit - now on runner
New pos. CLVT and not de-risked yet.
+0.43% on new exposure, and +1.5% day overall
STNE proves again why I like to take trims & partials to finance my risk of a more significant move, especially in those obvious base breakout setups.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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what is BORS? do you have a list of acronyms that you use that will give us what you mean.
what is EP?