Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 02/07
Finally some follow-through on yesterday's bounce attempt.
Good evening!
I won’t make it complicated tonight. We saw a follow-through on yesterday’s bounce attempt. It was not the strongest, but it’s still constructive and a change of character.
So far the thesis I shared last night is playing out, and we might see momentum coming in the next few days from here. I will play that thesis until/if I’m proven wrong.
Note that tomorrow is the 30Y bond auction (13:00 EST), and it should bring some volatility/catalyst.
Here’s what I see right now that makes me think we might see a continuation higher & breadth broadening out from here.
PTMM showing another 21dma bounce attempt and the 2024 price action looking like a large VCP now
ST/MT/LT momentum hooking up
RTY potential pullback channel breakout
ES/NQ pushing against new high ground
RSP builds pressure below the base level with higher lows on the right side
VIX structure breakdown attempt
Credit Spreads back below all kma’s
Bitcoin looking constructive
10Y rejected on the kma’s & structure retest. Constructive if we follow through
DXY rejected at base level & potential false breakout. Constructive if we follow through
Overall, we had every chance to roll over and break down lower in the last few days, which we failed to do.
We might very well not see that upside continuation materialize tomorrow/next few days…but I like the odds here after we gained more clarity today.
Good read & HAGN!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
We have a follow-through, that's a first step!
Price up +0.21% and back above all kma's. we didn't make a new high to confirm the reversal. I want more confirmation here.
Follow through on the 5/10-day hook up of yesterday.
Good push in the NNH.
MCSI still down, we'll need more strength to turn it.
Overall, that's constructive action, but we're not out of the woods yet. We'll want to see momentum come in the in next few days, alogn price making a new HH to really confirm the end of that pullback and potentially a breadth expansion from here.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
New high. Trend is strong & up.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
Breakout above 17793$ base level. That’s what we wanted to see. Now let’s follow-through on that.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
RTY is struggling to follow through on the channel breakout. It’s a choppy & hard trade…
OTHERS
RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF)
Attempts to breakout. We need to follow-through on that tomorrow!
Market Internals
Market Breadth & Extension (Stocks > 5, 20,50 & 200dma - short to long term view)
VST breadth hooked back up
ST breadth hooked back up
MT/LT breadth flat & trying to curl up.
Now that’s the structure breakdown I wanted to see on the VIX. It adds a lot of conviction for me, as long we are able to follow-through from here.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Rejected & back below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Looks like that kma’s rejection might work, with yields breaking down from that UTL structure after-hours.
US dollar index (DXY)
104.23$ false breakout?
Back below all kma’s and close to LOD after a good hammer this morning. Everything looks constructive and risk-on here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
BTC broke out of the wedge &43250$ pivot discussed last night, now let’s see how it does at 45k retest.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Large/Mega very strong today, with Micro/Small lagging (nothing new right :))
Tech/Consumer leading with financials. Good to see
Solar leading due to enph earnings
Now that's what we want to see, look at those green themes (top 10 leaders) being all up in the top20 ish. That's the action we want to see, leaders leading.
Leading themes charts (rank sorted):
1 Semiconductors SMH 2.02%
Breakout to a new high. We want to see follow-through tomorrow.
2 Uranium URA 1.13%
Still setting up at the 8dma, with another higher low today. 31.55 pivot for a long setup.
3 Software IGV 1.60%
Breakout to new high. We want to see follow-through tomorrow.
4 Cloud Computing SKYY 1.37%
Out of the PB wedge, looks ready to push.
5 Cybersecurity CIBR 1.76%
Breaking out. We want to see follow-through tomorrow.
6 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ 0.62%
Breaking out. We want to see follow-through tomorrow.
7 Homebuilders XHB 1.74%
Breaking out. We want to see follow-through tomorrow.
8 Gaming & eSports ESPO 0.70%
9 Medical Devices IHI -0.24%
10 Transport IYT 0.55%
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
FOCUSLIST
IOT (Long ) daily/W/65m - SAMSARA INC. - Alert: 32.98, SL: 30.81
Still setting up with that BORL setup off that LT base area retest. We still build higher lows at the 50dma, and today seem to be the DTL breakout. Playing today's high pivot or 32.98
GTLB (Long ) daily/W/65m - Gitlab Inc. - Alert: 73.23, SL: 68.95
Out of that pullback channel from the 10dma retest, but came back a bit below the 73.23 pivot eod. It might give us a nice opportunity to get in.
CLVT (Long ) daily/W/65m - CLARIVATE Plc - Alert: 9.23, SL: 8.95
We continue to build that super tight wedge as we build higher lows at the rising 21dma and now getting close to the 50dma as well. Looks ready
BBY (Long ) daily/W/65m - Best Buy Co., Inc. - Alert: 75.74, SL: 73.56
Best Buy is setting up nicely at the squeezed kma's and within that right side handle. Not the fastest mover and probably not a multi-bagger, but could be good for a quick swing.
SCANS
10dma pullback scan
GTLB AXSM MRVL TKO SNPS
21dma pullback scan
ANF STNE FOUR CRDO CLVT DELL ASO WSM AAP PATH FND OKTA SIG SQ CBRL IOT BLMN GMED GPS SIX BECN AEO BBY CAKE
50dma pullback scan
FND OKTA BLMN BBY
Continuation breakout scan
None
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
BECN RELY
Last week's top gainers - study material
NXT ARVN SYM HLIT EAT VRT CLS MOD WSC BOOT CLF MDB XPO FSLY NVDA DDOG DOCN DKNG SNOW ELF THC PLAY BLDR ESTC
Themes: Tech, Software, Consumer, Materials, Semis.
Continuation breakout: VRT WSC CLS NVDA ELF THC DKNG BLDR, etc
Pullback: ARVN SYM HLIT EAT MOD DDOG DOCN SNOW ESTC
EP: NXT BOOT
There are still many pullback setups, but we see more & more continuation breakouts in this week's scans. This is something to keep in mind as more stocks make new highs.
Good execution finding HLIT before moving last week in FL.
Caught DOCN move from FL and executed on it.
FSLY & BLDR were two positions that I cut too soon 2w ago.
MDB VRT SYM ELF DDOG ESTC all names that were shared & played in the PT community
We are in the right name, guys; we must continue identifying and executing these setups without jumping out too soon.
Again....study this list & scan EACH WKND, and find the correlation with your routine and what you can improve to put you in these setups week after week. That's how you improve your game.
What worked, and what do they have in common that I can replicate?
Those were the top performing liquid stocks, we want to catch those!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Overall, it was a slow grind-up day with constructive action.
BRZE 2R hit & de-risked
Closed XBI at close for -0.5R
Tried PATH this morning and got stopped for small -0.6% loss. SL was too tight, I am not doing well with sl that tight.
Then opened MRVL STNE & PATH which are not de-risked but have good cushion on them (+0.87%ec).
Respecting my -1%NUR overnight risk rule
+0.74%ec on new exposure, good execution today.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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