Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/11
Volatile reaction to the CPI report, but the market is still holding and building constructively.
Enjoy tonight’s report!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
PTMM is on a YELLOW market signal (🟨)
Key Takeaways:
Not a very broad selling day at -29% net decline
After a 21dma retest on the morning selloff, the key moving average held and we closed 0.64% above it. I ideally want to see today as a higher low and we push higher from here. Notice how we are still far from the high compared to NQ/ES, which was lifted mainly by mega-caps in the last few days. Broad market is weaker.
MCSI taking speed down, not what we want to see.
10-day momo ratio continue to downtrend, and now 5-day hooked down today.
Tomorrow is key for a reversal, or rollover with accelerated selling.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Today was wild with the CPI reaction. We dumped, then rallied to retest the highs, then sold off...to finally rally to a lower high in the afternoon. Structure wise, nothing is broken here with today's action. We have our 21dma & 4767 pivot retest, and potential higher low after Monday's bounce.
On the weekly, this week is also very constructive with the base level retest (July's high), and the 10wma bounce. We are still inside last week's range, and tomorrow will be important to see if we make a new high and confirm that very important bounce or not.
On the daily, we now have our 2 very key pivots to work with.
4830$ for a new high and continuation of the uptrend
4767$ breakdown for a rollover and potential 2nd leg down of that pullback.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Market Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
We are approaching a potential ST bounce area. Nice hammer today. We still closed negative. One thing is sure, if the market wants higher, we just made good room on the upside.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Strong hammer at recent structure and close to 50dma.
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT market extension)
Strong hammer here as well, as we continue to hold July’s top level.
Despite all this selling & fuckery…VIX closed red and broke down from the recent higher lows DTL structure. It might be a good clue for potential reversal & continuation higher tomorrow. We’ll see.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Continue to move lower, with another low below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
With MOVE and that channel breakdown today after lower highs structure…we might resume lower from here.
US dollar index (DXY)
Same for DXY, potential resumption lower from here as we continue to being rejected and made a lower high today.
Good hammer down below all kma’s. No red flag here as well.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still working on that BORS from the 45k base level.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
It's a strong day for Uranium. Theme to watch for a breakout
Good action in Cybersecurity (new high), China, Software & semis
Shipping looks ready to breakout (ZIM tight & INSW coiled at highs)
Large/Mega cap led & held the market today
Riskier assets got it rough.
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Cancer CNCR
The 13.89$ base level & 8dma was defended today, good.
2 Blockchain Technology BLOK
It was a nasty reversal, as it was clearly a sell-the-news event. 27.36$ base level is to watch for potential support.
3 Semiconductors SMH
Building so well with another 21dma retest today. Strong close.
4 Biotech XBI
We were not able to hold the 90.91 base level today, let’s see if we reclaim or follow through lower tomorrow.
5 Uranium URA
Strong move and looks ready to go.
6 Homebuilders XHB
Higher low and closed dead high. Great action.
7 Software IGV
Breakout attempt…but I wouldn’t mind having some kind of pullback and building a handle on the right side here. Maybe a breakout & retest + consolidation after…we’ll see.
8 Cybersecurity CIBR
Breakout to new high…leading sector for sure.
9 Cloud Computing SKYY
10 Internet PNQI
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
FOCUSLIST
FSLY daily/W/130m - FASTLY, INC. - Alert: 17.81, SL: 16.96
Building in a range around kma's for a few weeks jat the base bottom area and we are now making a higher low following the recent base level retest & bounce. Looks ready with another hammer today.
ENPH daily/W/130m - ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. - Alert: 115.91, SL: 110.82
Still building that tight channel as we consolidate just above the 50dma. This afternoon rally was good, but more work to do. If we can reclaim this afternoon high pivot I am interested.
STNE daily/W/130m - STONECO LTD. - Alert: 17.24, SL: 16.765
Building & digesting the recent strong move post-ER around the 21dma, with a tight day as it couldn't breakout of that wedge due to the market being heavy. Looks ready if the market is good.
NET daily/W/130m - CLOUDFLARE, INC. - Alert: 81.88, SL: 78.12
Another strong name to watch as we're digesting the recent move and made a potential higher low & hammer today. I like the action here around the 8/21 and a DTL breakout of 81.88$ reclaim for an entry. 80.83$ reclaim if a weak close will be interesting as well.
Z daily/W/130m - ZILLOW GROUP, INC. - Alert: 54.56, SL: 51.95
Very similar setup as STNE. We shoot right from the lows to attempt a 57.19$ base breakout, but we needed that pullback to cool off and remove the excess. Now looking ready with today's hammer and a close right at the 21dma and below DTL. 54.56 or DTL for an entry.
AEO daily/W/130m - AMERICAN EAGLE OUTFITTERS, INC. - Alert: 21.62, SL: 20.925
A classic breakout trade as we're building higher low and surfing the 21dma in this retail name.
XP daily/W/130m - XP Inc. - Alert: 25.26, SL: 24.715
Lower in the base, but building constructively around the 21dma and in that wedge. We see higher lows and good volume profile. Base is from July's high.
SCANS
21dma pullback scan
FRPT RGEN STNE CCL AX CLVT COHR WAL CHGG FIVN MLTX ZION ABR DEI RBLX YOU Z ZG ITCI LPX NET XP BANC UPWK
Pullback-tight scan
RVMD LAZ AX XENE DEI STNG Z ZG ITCI
Continuation breakout scan
AEO
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
HQY MNDY APP OLLI MDB XP FSLY UPWK
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Sucked trading too heavy at the open after CPI bounce. Took L in DOCU/S/LRCX
Re-opened DOCU & caught acq. news taking 2R & 5R target on the move. Runner left only overnight.
Other than DOCU, no changes in PF...everything held and no red flags either.
Closing the day at -0.16%ec on new daily exposure (thx DOCU)
Closing the day at -0.36%ec which is not bad considering how I traded at open and the kind of volatile CPI reaction we've had.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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