Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist report - 10/30
GDB closed at +120... as we bounced & got a weak reversal off key support level
Good evening!
I hope you’ll like this report!
Here is what you could do to help make them possible and support my work.
Leave a like on this post below.
Share this post on Twitter (X)
Thanks, Alex ✌️
PrimeTrading is an equity swing trading community based on DISCORD to learn & trade alongside experienced traders.
✅ See how I execute intraday while I share my trades live.
✅ Alex's daily market commentary, Portfolio updates, trade explanations, and daily FocusList.
✅ Share & Discuss potential trade ideas with an amazing like-minded community
✅ Talk Macro Economy, Cryptocurrencies & much more!
✅ Talk about mental game & psychology to evolve as a trader!
✅ Education & mentoring from Alex & experienced traders. (10 Experienced Traders team)
✅ Q&A meetings & LIVE sessions
Improve as a trader with a risk management first approach while working directly with me intraday.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES opened the week with a reversal, as we reclaimed the 4161$ level and Friday’s high pivot.
This is a first step, but we have A LOT of work IF we continue on the path in the next few days.
I’ll be watching closely how we react to a potential retest of 4161$ (we want it to hold on & bounce on a retest). If we follow through tomorrow, we must watch 4211$ very closely as the potential resistance level.
We are still below all kma’s and continue to sell off on heavy distribution, so defense is fundamental right here & now. We never know how fast & hard we can continue lower…even if the market is oversold & extended.
I’ll watch these levels as potential resistance for retest & rejection. If we reclaim those, it would be seen as constructive.
4211$
4235$ (Oct. low)
4264$
4308$
4337$
I’ll watch these levels as potential support if we follow through lower (or retest & go):
4161$
4076$ (The same area as the measured move from Aug. top.)
4030$
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
GDB closed at +120... as we bounced & got a weak reversal
Price reversal (+0.51%)
Not much improvement in the NNL yet
Pretty flat daily momo (34 vs 30)
LT_momo keep getting more extreme, while MT_momo ticked higher
The market did open the week with a bounce after being oversold & extended. This is only one day, so it's far from confirming anything on the long side, especially with that NOT IMPRESSIVE breadth.
The first step will be to see if we can follow through on that reversal tomorrow, and then we have FOMC on Wed. that will either confirm the tradable rally with I hope a big breadth thrust (GDB >+400), or we rollover to new low again on that catalyst.
We should know more on Wed...and until then we're pretty much in no man's land as we prepare for either scenario!
No need to play hero in this type of high-velocity downtrend. Trying to pick a bottom is a sure way to get killed...confirmation is worth a lot of $$$.
PTMM is still at a RED market signal (🟥)
Action/Rules:
SHORT trades allowed
1/2 positions only (10%)
Trimming 1/3 at 1R & 2R
Keeping 1/3 as a runner position
New open risk > 0% (meaning all new exposure is financed and paid for with trims)
Internals
MMFD (Stocks > 5dma - market extension)
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - market extension)
We’re still at that Aug./Sept structure level, which is still holding. A break here would probably mean a melt-down, while support & bounce could spark a tradable rally.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - market extension)
We bounce right from that potential bounce area on MMFI today. That’s the spot I have been watching since last week. Now, let’s see if it unfolds like the three last market bottoms or not.
A scenario like in June & Oct. 2022 is possible here, where we make a slightly higher low. I’m watching that potential scenario closely.
New low and sitting right at the current leg down UTL…this is constructive if we can break and stay below 20.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Still above all kma’s and wedging.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
The uptrend continues above all kma’s.
US dollar index (DXY)
A good reversal today. Let’s see if we can follow through on that move tomorrow.
Still building above all kma’s and that range top level, which I don’t really like going into FOMC… We need to cool off here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still holding that breakout, this is constructive while kma’s are catching up and we digest the recent move.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Bounce led by mega-caps, while small-cap struggled.
Healthcare, Energy & RE lagging
URA setting up well again
BLOK still strong & now #1 rank
Internet good RS today
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Blockchain Technology BLOK
2 Software IGV
3 Internet PNQI
4 Semiconductors SMH
5 Uranium URA
6 Nuclear NLR
7 Gold Miners GDX
8 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
9 Property & Casualty Insurance KBWP
10 Oil & Gas Equip. & Services PXJ
FOCUSLIST
LONG FOCUSLIST
PTMM = RED = NO long FL
SHORT FOCUSLIST (simplified)
Market ST extended and not good R: R spot to initiate new shorts
LEADERS LIST
Overall leaders (PRIME Score)
ANF,PDD,VST,RELY,DELL,X,NU,VRT,AEO,TDS,CRWD,FTAI,ESTC,SFM,HCC,COUR,APP,DLR,HRB,NRG,
Fundamental leaders (FA Score)
NVDA,INDI,NU,TMDX,META,SDRL,LVS,RBA,PODD,DLO,DUOL,NCLH,CCL,PANW,MLCO,TDW,DLR,FSLR,EXTR,EURN,
Technical leaders (TA Score)
FRO,ANF,ESTE,PDD,RELY,X,CEIX,PR,FTI,TDS,LPG,LBRT,DELL,INSW,AEO,VRT,HCC,SM,APP,DHT,
Relative Strength 1 Month (1M-RS)
BTTR,SPR,MSTR,NEP,EGO,CUBI,PI,FRO,NFLX,INSW,APLS,LPG,VSCO,AR,PDD,KSS,DG,MARA,STNG,SWN,
Relative Strength 3 Month (3M-RS)
TDS,APLS,ANF,FRO,CEIX,VRT,RELY,CPRI,X,ESTE,PR,STNG,DELL,AEO,LBRT,INSW,HRB,PDD,DHT,EURN,
Relative Strength 6 Month (6M-RS)
CVNA,IMGN,ANF,VRT,SMCI,APP,TDS,PLTR,CUBI,CEIX,ETRN,AFRM,ZS,CELH,BBIO,FRO,PDD,LPG,ESTE,FTI,
SCANS
Stocks > 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan (potential 21dma PB LONG setups) 🐂
ANF DELL VRT AEO CRWD LULU TMUS FIVE FL
Stocks < 50dma & +/- 3% from 21dma #scan (potential 21dma PB SHORT setups) 🐻
DLR GES ACI SPB FUTU CNM BJ WDAY LPLA RHI CALM TOL JNPR PHM DRI UHS CCK SCCO CPB RCL BERY KBH PVH ADC SLM SYF ASB TNL ULTA PLAY BOX USB AI TGT BA KEY ASO FHN SNV BURL
Alex’s TAKEAWAYS & GAMEPLAN
One day is not a trend, but every trend starts with a reversal.
Will that reversal lead to follow-through and the start of that tradable rally from an oversold & extended market…or will we roll over as we retest overhead resistance and only prove to be an ST bounce…that I don’t know.
All I know is this:
The market is oversold & extended
We got a reversal from a key support area today
The market is STILL in a solid & heavy downtrend below all kma’s.
The reversal’s breadth was really not impressive today. Big buyers did not shown up yet.
We have FOMC, which an important catalyst on Wednesday, so we can swing both sides.
Bottomline, we are at an interesting spot, but the market has SO MUCH to prove until I’m ready to engage back long.
Make no mistake, when the market will turn, AND IT WILL TURN... we have the tools with #PTMM to give us the GO to engage back long in the market.
Important economic news/events (weekly)
GAME PLAN:
PTMM = RED = SHORT OR CASH
I only trade 1/2 positions (10%)
I trim quickly 1/3 at 1R & 2R into strength
I want to be either close to zero (>-0.25%) or positive on my new exposure risk (NOR) by EOD.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
PRIME MODEL SPREADSHEET (PT_database)
Access to the PT_database 👇
REFERENCES
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Thanks Alex. 100% cash. Can’t wait for the turn. But I think we still have a lot of room left to the downside. 2-3 weeks