Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/08
Strong bounce at key support level - Can we follow through on that breadth thrust?
Enjoy tonight’s report!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
PTMM is on a YELLOW market signal (🟨)
Key Takeaways:
PTMM closed at +605...which I considered as a breadth thrust (FTD), and indication that buyers are stepping back on that PB opportunity
I tweaked my model signals to align with how I trade on pullbacks. PTMM is then on a YELLOW signal. (I’ll update the PTMM edu article to reflect that change)
Strong U/D volume
Great daily_momo, with ST_momo coming off the oversold area, and MT/LT continue to hook up.
That's precisely what we want to see on a market pullback. The first reversal will tell a lot about the potential intermediate direction, tho. Will we see strong selling & distribution or light & orderly selling? I await that feedback to build more conviction in a higher potential continuation.
If we rally for 1-3 days, we don’t want to see distribution coming and a hard rejection that would create a lower high on the major indices & PTMM. If this happens, then we’ll have to be defensive and look for a more extended pullback & digestion. Until then, all kma’s all up & in an uptrend.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Well, the perfect scenario today.
ES made a higher low overnight, and pushed from the base level above the wedge DTL, 21dma, and above the 4747$ & 4790$ levels.
Very positive action and that’s basically my best-case scenario how that pullback could play out at the base level & 21dma.
We’ll need to see how we react to a stress test and first reversal. Do we make a lower high and keep trading lower, or do we find quick buyers and make a higher low and push to new highs?
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Market Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Big reversal as we engulfed the last 2 days and approach the 60% area retest. That’s a big structure spot and we’ll have to watch how we react there.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Bounce at 21dma
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT market extension)
Bounce at July’s high & 21dma area.
This is a really great action and increased my conviction in this pullback bounce as we rejected the 50 & 21dma once again and closed lower than the last 4-day range.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Going in the right direction so far.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Channel breakout. Higher yields?
US dollar index (DXY)
Rejection & continuation lower?
2023 base level rejection…this is what we want to see. Let’s follow through and make a new low ;)
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
New high breakout! Follow through higher or base level retest?
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Strong day across the board...except for Energy
XLK/XLY/XLC led the day...that's the stuff we want to see leading the market
Cancer,, biotech, Medical Equip.
Semis, Softwares, Blok, IPO, etc...good stuff bouncing
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Biotech XBI
Base level breakout
2 Cancer CNCR
Base level breakout
3 Blockchain Technology BLOK
Setting up for an entry here with higher lows at 21dma just above the base level.
4 Semiconductors SMH
Range & kma’s reclaim. Good action.
5 Homebuilders XHB
6 Software IGV
7 Cloud Computing SKYY
8 Internet PNQI
9 Capital Markets KCE
Nice entry here.
10 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
Theme pushed by NVDA
Sectors & Themes ideas:
BLOK (crypto), Reg. Banks & Metals Mining interesting for tomorrow
FOCUSLIST
I would look to play these names on weakness on a red open tomorrow, a bit like we saw this morning. They are already off the lows for 1-3 days, and a stress test & HL would be best R:R and less chances of being kicked out with tight SL.
LONG FOCUSLIST
APP daily/W/130m - APPLOVIN CORPORATION - Alert: 39.59, SL: 37.95
Tight pullback channel breakout from the 6 month's base bottom level. We are also right at 21/50dma and could see a reclaim if we follow through.
IONQ daily/W/130m - IONQ, INC. - Alert: 12.57, SL: 11.95
Still very low at range's low level and just getting out of tight PB channel. We are still just below 50d and might look at a reclaim.
BBIO daily/W/130m - BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. - Alert: 39.13, SL: 36.5
A name to play the biotech leadership with a nice base level & 21dma retest here. Adjust position size for added biotech risk.
FYBR daily/W/130m - FRONTIER COMMUNICATIONS PARENT, INC. - Alert: 24.96, SL: 23.83
A 21dma trender since stage 1 base breakout in Nov. Tight channel as we retest recent swingH pibot and showing constructive volume.
TRIP daily/W/130m - TRIPADVISOR, INC. - Alert: 21.44, SL: 20.66
Higher lows at the 21dma as we are still in that tight range just below highs.
MARA daily/W/130m - MARATHON DIGITAL HOLDINGS, INC. - Alert: 26.88, SL: 22.62
Cooled off a bit as we are now at 6.5xATR-50dma and making higher lows at the 21dma while BTC is breaking out to new highs. That's a wild one, but great R:R above base level if proper position size is used.
CVNA daily/W/130m - CARVANA CO. - Alert: 49.03, SL: 44.5
After failing on the 56.92 base breakout while being very extended, we are seeing a classic low volume pullback as we digest the recent move and build strength for the 2nd breakout attempt. 4 tight days at the 21dma and still inside that PB channel. Could be a big mover with the current short interest on this name.
SHORT FOCUSLIST (simplified)
SCANS
21dma pullback scan
STNE COIN M PCVX PLAY RIOT RNG TXG CUK CVNA FYBR GLBE HIMS RGEN SIG BPMC CALM CCL DOCU FRSH HASI COHR OKTA SMAR SMG SPT DEI IOT KSS LYFT TDW UA CC CLS ESTC MLTX NARI NEOG SHAK ABR MQ VNO CLF FL
Pullback-tight scan
MKSI ARVN BBIO INSM STNE CBAY DOCN HOOD MAC PCVX PLAY RNG SAVE TXG U FYBR GLBE RGEN RYTM TWST Z ZG CALM CLSK FRSH HASI COHR PCOR SMAR SMG TNDM WAL ACAD AX DEI IOT TDW CC ESTC MLTX NEOG SHAK ABR FOUR TRIP VNO FL
Continuation breakout scan (NEW SCAN-UNDER DEV)
AEO
Bigger the base, higher in space scan (NEW SCAN-UNDER DEV)
DBRG INSW MNDY TSLA APP IONQ FSLY CELH
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Great bounce in the broad market with good push in exposure & traction on new buys today.
2R target hit on META & CRWD
5R target hit on SMCI, and is now a runner
New exposure in XBI PGNY PDD & INSW. 2R target hit on all of them except for INSW + 5R on XBI. Only -0.28% NUR for all that exposure, perfect scenario.
+2.15% on new exposure today (great execution feedback), and +4.25% total ec daily. It was a massive day and good for MC after the 2023 I’ve had.
That's the first real PB opportunity that I've been using that 180deg mental shift where I'm more aggressive while ST_momo is oversold, and so far the feedback is really good.
As ST_momo is now coming OFF that buying area, I will hold back on opening new exposure to optimize my entries, not being chopped up buying late in the momentum cycle and increasing my win rate.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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