Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 02/08
The breadth continue to expend, as growth stocks are picking a bid.
Good evening!
We’ll keep it simple again tonight…
We continue to see buying & momentum coming back into this market as the broad market made a new high again today, while we saw a strong daily momentum reading.
We might get a stress test in the next few days, but so far I like what I see.
PTMM, RSP, IWO, IWC, ARKK are all showing potential sound structure breakout that could lead to breadth widening out and a broad market rally taking form.
Let’s take it one day at a time, and we’ll see how sellers step back in once it happens.
Once again, we focus on our portfolio positions and focus list while the market is in a confirmed uptrend and we don’t have any red flags in sight.
Good read & HAGN!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
Day 3 of this attempted rally. (broad market)
Price picking up speed, and we are making the HH I wanted to see to confirm the end of that PB leg. I think the probability of a continuation breakout is increasing with today's action.
STRONG daily momentum with a top10% up day, plus 5/10-day ratio following higher
MT_momo flat
MCSI really trying to round up with the last few days of positive participation, let's see if we can flip up tomorrow and confirm the hook up there as well.
I think things are looking good as we see momentum & participation picking up with this new price high today. We are still early, but we'll want to see this MCSI flip up and cross the 10dma to really confirm the GREEN market signal again.
PrimeTrading is a community dedicated to equity swing trading, providing a collaborative environment for learning and active trading alongside seasoned and knowledgeable traders.
Enhance your skills as a trader by adopting a risk management-centric approach, working closely with me in real-time throughout the intraday trading sessions.
✅ Intraday Live Execution of My Trades
Experience & learn of live intraday trading as I share real-time insights into my execution process. Witness the decision-making, strategies, and nuances that drive success in the fast-paced world of intraday trading.
✅ Alex's Daily Market Wisdom, Portfolio Updates, and FocusList
Access exclusive daily market commentary, portfolio updates, and the intricately curated FocusList from Alex. Gain valuable insights into market trends, trade executions, and the strategic decisions influencing the portfolio.
✅ Sharing & Refining Trade Ideas with an Exceptional Group
Engage in a vibrant community where like-minded traders collaborate to share, discuss, and refine potential trade ideas. Leverage collective intelligence, diverse perspectives, and collaborative efforts to enhance your trading strategy.
✅ Beyond Markets: Unveiling Macroeconomics, Cryptocurrencies, and More
Explore broader discussions beyond traditional markets, including macroeconomics, cryptocurrencies, and other pertinent topics shaping the financial landscape. Stay informed on diverse market dynamics and emerging trends.
✅ Mastering the Mind: Delving into the Mental Game & Psychology of Trading
Gain insights into the psychological aspects of trading. Delve into discussions that address the mental challenges, mindset shifts, and strategies to cultivate resilience and success in the ever-evolving world of trading.
✅ Learn from the Best: Education & Mentorship by Alex & Pro Traders
Immerse yourself in a comprehensive learning experience with educational content and mentorship sessions led by Alex and other seasoned traders. Acquire the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate various market conditions successfully.
✅ Interactive Exploration: Q&A Zoom Meetings for Dynamic Learning
Participate in interactive Q&A Zoom meetings designed for dynamic learning. Pose questions, engage in discussions, and benefit from real-time insights, creating an enriching and collaborative learning environment.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Struggling at a recent high, but healthy digestion. The trend is strong.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
New high today, as it classifies as a breakout follow-through.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Strong push out of the channel DTL retest and we reclaimed all kma’s and recent range pivot. That look really constructive and a sign of breadth broadening out.
OTHERS
RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF)
That’s a follow-through (shy)
IWO (small-cap growth)
Breakout
IWC (Micro-cap)
Looks very constructive with a good push above all kma’s today, following the recent higher low structure at the 50dma.
ARKK
Market Internals
Market Breadth & Extension (Stocks > 5, 20,50 & 200dma - short to long term view)
VST breadth flat around 60%
ST breadth flat around 60%
MT/LT breadth flat & trying to curl up.
Now that’s the structure breakdown I wanted to see on the VIX. It adds a lot of conviction for me, as long we are able to follow-through from here.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Rejected & back below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Still in that range as we’re basing above kma’s and as we retest the channel UTL.
US dollar index (DXY)
104.23$ false breakout? Potential Lower High today.
Back below all kma’s. Everything looks constructive and risk-on here.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Breakout above 45k.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Strong day for growth/riskier assets. ARKK Small + Micro
Mega/Large lagging and maybe we see that rotation happening.
Big day for crypto miners (BLOK) as noted last night
Leading themes Cloud/Home builders/semis/software/Cyber all doing well
Leading themes charts (rank sorted):
1 Semiconductors SMH
New high.
2 Cloud Computing SKYY
New high.
3 Software IGV
New high.
4 Cybersecurity CIBR
New high.
5 Uranium URA
Sellers came in hard today, let’s see if we can hold the 29.27$ base level.
6 Homebuilders XHB
New high.
7 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
New high.
8 Blockchain Technology BLOK
Powerful breakout.
9 Gaming & eSports ESPO
Failed new high.
10 Transport IYT
New high.
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
FOCUSLIST
STNE (Long ) daily/W/65m - STONECO LTD. - Alert: 18.24, SL: 17.62
I am already in the name, but we are still setting up and below the base level & recent swingH pivot that would really trigger the setup & breakout. This looks ready
XBI (Long ) daily/W/65m - SPDR S&P Biotech - Alert: 89.64, SL: 88.01
The handle getting TIGHT on the right side as we continue to build higher lows, and 2x inside day right at the 8/21dma. I really like the look of that sector and I'll want to jump back in after being stopped yesterday.
CLVT (Long ) daily/W/65m - CLARIVATE Plc - Alert: 9.35, SL: 9.18
I closed the trade due to the eod selling that got me back to breakeven. I closed the trade for risk management reasons, but I'll look to get back in as I really like the weekly chart on this one.
BVN (Long ) daily/W/65m - Compania de Minas Buenaventura SAA - Alert: 15.32, SL: 15
A proper HTF and I like how we are surfing the rising 21dma with higher lows, and we are now below 5xATR-50dma, which I consider not over-extended anymore.
SCANS
10dma pullback scan
ANF DBRG DELL
21dma pullback scan
BVN PAGS STNE FOUR OKTA FND SIG FL BLMN KBH SGRY PODD
50dma pullback scan
FIVN
Continuation breakout scan
DELL
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
GLBE BECN
Last week's top gainers - study material
NXT ARVN SYM HLIT EAT VRT CLS MOD WSC BOOT CLF MDB XPO FSLY NVDA DDOG DOCN DKNG SNOW ELF THC PLAY BLDR ESTC
Themes: Tech, Software, Consumer, Materials, Semis.
Continuation breakout: VRT WSC CLS NVDA ELF THC DKNG BLDR, etc
Pullback: ARVN SYM HLIT EAT MOD DDOG DOCN SNOW ESTC
EP: NXT BOOT
There are still many pullback setups, but we see more & more continuation breakouts in this week's scans. This is something to keep in mind as more stocks make new highs.
Good execution finding HLIT before moving last week in FL.
Caught DOCN move from FL and executed on it.
FSLY & BLDR were two positions that I cut too soon 2w ago.
MDB VRT SYM ELF DDOG ESTC all names that were shared & played in the PT community
We are in the right name, guys; we must continue identifying and executing these setups without jumping out too soon.
Again....study this list & scan EACH WKND, and find the correlation with your routine and what you can improve to put you in these setups week after week. That's how you improve your game.
What worked, and what do they have in common that I can replicate?
Those were the top performing liquid stocks, we want to catch those!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Good day.
I was able to get 2R target on MRVL & PATH
Opened IOT, which worked right away and got my 2 & 5R target today. Now on the runner
5R target hit for PATH too - now on the runner
Tried CLVT but didn't work and I cut b/e eod
Down to only -0.28% NUR for overnight risk. I like to see my risk being financed like that.
+0.61% on new exposure & +2.3% overall.
We are on day #2 following the bounce attempt, let's see if we can see more follow-through and breadth thrust to close the week.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)
Hello Alex! As always, thanks for the market update! Question about BVN, love the setup but have doubts because the 13% extension to the 50dMA. Do you take that in consideration? Some IBD guys prefer to buy when 50dMA is less than 10%.
Love the CLVT basing setup. Added to watchlist! Have a good WE!