Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/07
Pullback still underway, but the market is trying to bounce off key area. Will it hold or we'll retest lower levels?
Enjoy tonight’s report!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
PTMM is on a RED market signal (🟥)
Key Takeaways:
GDB closed the week at +160.
First green day after four red prior - can we follow through on that green day tomorrow?
NNH dancing around 0
5 & 10_day ratio hooked up.
MT_momo hooked up, too.
Momentum is returning to the market (ST & MT_momo hooked up). Notice the trend in the last three days, with positive momentum creeping in. That's either a bear flag if we don't see it ramping & spiking up or the market trying to stabilize and work a local bottom for a bounce.
After last week’s selling and the first 21dma pullback since October’s low, I will watch for a potential bounce early this week. Then, the reaction to that bounce will tell a lot about the intermediate-term action we might see.
If we rally for 1-3 days, we don’t want to see distribution coming and a hard rejection that would create a lower high on the major indices & PTMM. If this happen, then we’ll have to be defensive and look for a more extended pullback & digestion. Until then, all kma’s all up & in an uptrend.
PrimeTrading is a community dedicated to equity swing trading, providing a collaborative environment for learning and active trading alongside seasoned and knowledgeable traders.
Enhance your skills as a trader by adopting a risk management-centric approach, working closely with me in real-time throughout the intraday trading sessions.
✅ Intraday Live Execution of My Trades
Experience & learn of live intraday trading as I share real-time insights into my execution process. Witness the decision-making, strategies, and nuances that drive success in the fast-paced world of intraday trading.
✅ Alex's Daily Market Wisdom, Portfolio Updates, and FocusList
Access exclusive daily market commentary, portfolio updates, and the intricately curated FocusList from Alex. Gain valuable insights into market trends, trade executions, and the strategic decisions influencing the portfolio.
✅ Sharing & Refining Trade Ideas with an Exceptional Group
Engage in a vibrant community where like-minded traders collaborate to share, discuss, and refine potential trade ideas. Leverage collective intelligence, diverse perspectives, and collaborative efforts to enhance your trading strategy.
✅ Beyond Markets: Unveiling Macroeconomics, Cryptocurrencies, and More
Explore broader discussions beyond traditional markets, including macroeconomics, cryptocurrencies, and other pertinent topics shaping the financial landscape. Stay informed on diverse market dynamics and emerging trends.
✅ Mastering the Mind: Delving into the Mental Game & Psychology of Trading
Gain insights into the psychological aspects of trading. Delve into discussions that address the mental challenges, mindset shifts, and strategies to cultivate resilience and success in the ever-evolving world of trading.
✅ Learn from the Best: Education & Mentorship by Alex & Pro Traders
Immerse yourself in a comprehensive learning experience with educational content and mentorship sessions led by Alex and other seasoned traders. Acquire the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate various market conditions successfully.
✅ Interactive Exploration: Q&A Zoom Meetings for Dynamic Learning
Participate in interactive Q&A Zoom meetings designed for dynamic learning. Pose questions, engage in discussions, and benefit from real-time insights, creating an enriching and collaborative learning environment.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES found some support at the 4709$ base level (July’s high), but we couldn’t find enough strength to bounce convincingly.
This is the real pullback to the 21dma since the October low, so I’m still considering it a buying opportunity unless we fail to find support and flush from here.
If we can’t find support at that base level & 21dma, the next area of interest is around 4648$, which could also align with the 50dma.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Market Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Pullback still underway and we remove lot of recent excess right now. That’s what we want to see to create fuel for another move higher. We still have room on the downside if the market want to continue lower.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Coming off overbought area here as well.
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT market extension)
Coming off overbought area here as well.
14.49$ structure rejection on Friday with a close below Thursday’s low. I like that action but I’ll look for a follow through down on Monday.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Going in the right direction so far.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Channel breakout. Higher yields?
US dollar index (DXY)
Still struggling around the 21dma.
Right into 50d and big big 2023 base level. If we reclaim that level, caution…if we reject, good!
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Squeezing in that wedge. Top base level for continuation, and UTL break for downside reversal.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
FFTY/mid/large led the day, but overall weak day
Small cap lagging
Financial & communication leading
Healthcare digesting
Strong day for Oil & gas
Airlines & bank leading
LEADERS (TOP10 - Overall/Weekly/Monthly/52w low/52w high)
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Blockchain Technology BLOK
2 Cancer CNCR
3 Homebuilders XHB
4 Semiconductors SMH
5 Banks KBWB
6 Oil & Gas Equip. & Services PXJ
Inverse H&S
7 Software IGV
8 Metals & Mining XME
9 Capital Markets KCE
10 Internet PNQI
Sectors & Themes ideas:
From what I see for potential weekly continuation setups for the week. Shippers + Banks + Insurance + REIT + Energy.
From daily TF, Cancer, Reg. Banks, Homebuilders, and Lithium as potential PB setups to watch
FOCUSLIST
LONG FOCUSLIST
GPS daily/W/130m - THE GAP, INC. - Alert: 21.09, SL: 19.95
Strong move following last earnings, and we are just making the first real 21d pullback since then. We bounced hard on Friday, and we are now below 5xATR-50d. I see Friday's move as a potential U&R off the 20.65 range pivot.
If we open weak, I would look at 21.09$ pivot or a 20.65 U&R.
On intraday (10m), we have that tight wedge right at the GB/267ema. 20.81 is of interest if we open flat.
INSW daily/W/130m - International Seaways, Inc. - Alert: 49.36, SL: 47.61
Top focus for me tomorrow. Hot theme (marine shipping), inside day right at base level after a WB + WBPB setup completed. Giant 1 year base on weekly. I love this one a lot.
PGNY daily/W/130m - PROGYNY, INC. - Alert: 36.8, SL: 35.48
2nd pullback following the larger correction channel breakout, as we make a higher low after 2w ago failed breakout of the 36.8$ swingH pivot. I would look at 36.8 reclaim for an entry.
XBI daily/W/130m - SPDR S&P Biotech - Alert: 89.91, SL: 86.96
The sector is extended at 6xatr-50d, but with the last years selling and how much setups there is in that sector right now, I would not be surprised if we only get that tight channel as we retest the 21d area before attempting the 90.91 base level breakout and continuation higher.
Daily remind me of BLOK before the 27.36 base breakout.
PDD daily/W/130m - PDD Holdings Inc. - Alert: 146.82, SL: 143.62
Looking for a re-entry if market is good. Around where I closed, or on a 146.82$ pivot reclaim.
SHORT FOCUSLIST (simplified)
SCANS
21dma pullback scan
FRPT MKSI STNE CUK INSM JWN CCL FYBR VRT LITE TDW TEAM WAL BXP CC DEI IDYA OUT SIRI SLG SUN ARE GPS NARI PGNY VNO XP CRNX
Pullback-tight scan
SNAP ELF FRPT IOVA RIOT ELAN CALM MOD SPR VKTX ZION LITE ACAD KRC GKOS TRIP
Continuation breakout scan (NEW SCAN-UNDER DEV)
None
Bigger the base, higher in space scan (NEW SCAN-UNDER DEV)
INSW XP
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Tried to push today (Friday), but didn't materialize. Part of the game
Stopped on DBRG (b/e trade)
New position in BROS, 2R hit, but stopped b/e on trade
Closed PDD close to b/e as no cushion for wknd and didn't like the intraday structure
Added to CRWD is the only new exposure I kept from today
Overall not a terrible day as I closed green, but I am still trying to position for that bounce at the PTMM 21dma and oversold ST_momo area. -0.16% on new exposure today, so slightly red, but I like I was nimble and aggressive intraday. When this kind of execution will stick and momentum will really come in, it will be a very nice EC push without much risk like today proved. That's the type of trading I want to do more at the right buying spot breadth wise.
Closing the week at +1%. Not a big EC push, but considering the market we had...I am very happy with that.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)