Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 01/10
CPI time!
Enjoy tonight’s report!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
PTMM is on a YELLOW market signal (🟨)
Key Takeaways:
PTMM closed at -97, as we saw a mixed & choppy day before CPI tomorrow.
NNH continues to increase (PTHL back uptrend)
5-day ratio now > 2, but 10-day still oversold < 1. There is still more upside room in this momentum window of opp, IMO.
Price still above ALL kma's, and CPI tomorrow should really give us the 21dma bounce & new high OR lower high and 2nd leg down on the pullback confirmation.
Overall, there is still no red flag, and the price is in a solid uptrend.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
Strong day today as we pushed from the 4790$ pivot and broke out of the range we were building in the last two days.
We are now sitting right at the 52w high 4830$ pivot, right into CPI… It’s either a new high and uptrend continuation tomorrow or a rejection from here. Price action and internals look constructive, so my guess would be the new high…but we can never be certain.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Market Internals
MMTW (Stocks > 20dma - ST market extension)
Higher low today, looks constructive.
MMFI (Stocks > 50dma - MT market extension)
Hammer today, looks constructive.
MMTH (Stocks > 200dma - LT market extension)
Still building that tight tight range around 60%…tomorrow CPI report should give us the catalyst to break either side here.
LT view…we have room either side.
VIX showing a potential DTL structure break right at 12.75$ level. I see this as being constructive going into tomorrow.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Made a lower low. Structure seems to shift back into downtrend…which is constructive for tomorrow.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Tight wedge…probably waiting on CPI report.
US dollar index (DXY)
Rejection & continuation lower? Tight action below 102.93.
Back below all kma’s. Another constructive sign into tomorrow. If we spike here on CPI tomorrow, I would get more defensive.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still working on that BORS from the base level retest. So far good reaction on the ETF news.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Dashboard is now sorted by RANK, with daily/weekly/monthly/52w high/low top 10 in the middle table. It should help to have all on the same print -
It is a strong day for Mega/Large caps today. Big b/o
Medical Devices & CIBR are super strong, along with software.
Overall, it is a mixed day again today, as the market is trying to digest the recent bounce and wait for CPI tomorrow
10 leading themes charts (w/ pivots):
1 Cancer CNCR
2 Biotech XBI
Still working & digesting the recent move above the 90.91 base level.
3 Blockchain Technology BLOK
This will breakout tomorrow with the BTC ETF news.
4 Semiconductors SMH
I like today’s inside day.
5 Homebuilders XHB
6 Software IGV
7 Cloud Computing SKYY
8 Cybersecurity CIBR
New high tomorrow?
9 Internet PNQI
New high tomorrow?
10 Uranium URA
29.27 rejection.
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
FOCUSLIST
DOCU daily/W/130m - DOCUSIGN, INC. - Alert: 56.48, SL: 54.76
Still working a tight area at the 21dma with 2 inside day now. Ready to go or break
S daily/W/130m - SENTINELONE, INC. - Alert: 24.79, SL: 22.82
Similar setup on S, as we tried to breakout of the tight 21dma range today, but didn't get much push. We are now squeezing between the 312ema & GB intraday
RPD daily/W/130m - RAPID7, INC. - Alert: 55.17, SL: 52.9
Large stage 1 base retest in progress as we're now pushing back against the 21ma after today's inside day.
FSLY daily/W/130m - FASTLY, INC. - Alert: 17.81, SL: 17.16
Love this one. Building in a range around kma's for a few weeks jat the base bottom area and we are now making a higher low following the recent base level retest & bounce. Looks ready.
ENPH daily/W/130m - ENPHASE ENERGY, INC. - Alert: 119.87, SL: 114.01
Really like this more beaten down setup on the has-been solar leader name. Great recent run from the lows, with an excellent profile as the last pullback was defended on huge volume. I would look at the 21 & 8dma & DTL reclaim to initiate. Let's just hope we don't gap too much tomorrow.
CADE daily/W/130m - Cadence Bank - Alert: 29.19, SL: 28.56
Reg. Bank are all over the scans tonight, and they could respond well to CPI tomorrow. I like CADE with that tight range right at the 21dma and just below the 8. Daily DTL is a big level to watch as well.
LRCX daily/W/130m - LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION - Alert: 757.7, SL: 736.5101
Like this one for a larger-cap name. We are working a very constructive BORL setup as we retest the base area and now making higher lows below the 757.70$ pivot.
SCANS
21dma pullback scan
DV PK SLM TPG CE EFX PCVX SONO STNE CCL COLB CUK GNRC HASI PLAY PNC QRVO RGEN S SIG YETI ALLY AVTR DOCU EAT FYBR HOOD KEY KKR KSS M OKTA PEAK TRMB ABR ASB BX CALM DEI ESTC HBAN HOG IOT RF SPR TER Z AZEK CADE CMC DNB EWBC FHN FND KIM OLN URI USB VNO ARE BAC BRKR ONB SIRI STNG VLY WBS FL FOUR SNV TEX AVGO
Pullback-tight scan
SLM TPG C CE PCVX STNE COLB PLAY QRVO YETI ALLY EAT FYBR M OKTA TRMB BX CALM HOG RF SPR Z CMC DNB FHN OLN URI BAC SIRI STNG TEX
Continuation breakout scan
OMF VRT BLDR CAT PGTI SFM TOL KBH SNOW FTAI
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
COTY DBRG ABNB CARR MDB NYT RPD APP DBX FSLY LRCX ODFL UPWK XP ATI
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Added back the FRSH 1/2 runner I closed end of Dec. Same price & size.
Adjusted SL of META CRWD FRSH GOOGL & LLY to secure profits and increase TOR on that market cycle.
No new trades today as per plan, now let's see how we react to CPI tomorrow.
+1% ish ec push again today. Keep surfing the wave.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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