Alex's daily Market update & Focuslist - 02/04
S&P making a new high, while breadth remains weak with some constructive decoupling action.
Good evening!
I hope you all had an amazing weekend and you were able to recharge that mental capital! :)
The market uptrend remains, while the breadth remains weak and mostly flat in the last few days/weeks. I continue to have good traction in my trading, and that’s the #1 indicator I’m following when the long-term trend is confirmed. So far, PTMM shows 5-week healthy digestion, so that “weak” breadth might only be a sign that the market is digesting the recent excess while we still have some pocket of strength working great.
This is definitely a stock pickers market.
We still have to watch the VIX & Credit Spreads closely, but we cooled a bit more Friday, which is constructive, but not out of the woods yet.
Overall, the uptrend is still intact, and we still have good long setups again tonight. I look forward to seeing the action tomorrow and getting back in more aggressively if the action allows me. (Which I began on Friday)
One day at a time.
HAGN!
Alex ✌️
Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Daily Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
We closed basically flat, with the price not able to push, but still holding the 21dma.
MCSI still flat/down (breadth contracting)
Price still digesting the recent uptrend, with now a higher low and 50dma catching up. I like the price consolidation of the last month of so, and it didn't rollover when it could last week.
LT_trend remains up, so I focus on my PF & focuslist first.
ST_momo (5&10) is basically flat but hooked up, which mean the side we break could be sustained for a couple days
MT_momo begin to pick up speed and near positive territory.
Overall not a bad look, even if the market does not yet want to breakout and breadth expend, which we'll have to see at some point.
PrimeTrading is a community dedicated to equity swing trading, providing a collaborative environment for learning and active trading alongside seasoned and knowledgeable traders.
Enhance your skills as a trader by adopting a risk management-centric approach, working closely with me in real-time throughout the intraday trading sessions.
✅ Intraday Live Execution of My Trades
Experience & learn of live intraday trading as I share real-time insights into my execution process. Witness the decision-making, strategies, and nuances that drive success in the fast-paced world of intraday trading.
✅ Alex's Daily Market Wisdom, Portfolio Updates, and FocusList
Access exclusive daily market commentary, portfolio updates, and the intricately curated FocusList from Alex. Gain valuable insights into market trends, trade executions, and the strategic decisions influencing the portfolio.
✅ Sharing & Refining Trade Ideas with an Exceptional Group
Engage in a vibrant community where like-minded traders collaborate to share, discuss, and refine potential trade ideas. Leverage collective intelligence, diverse perspectives, and collaborative efforts to enhance your trading strategy.
✅ Beyond Markets: Unveiling Macroeconomics, Cryptocurrencies, and More
Explore broader discussions beyond traditional markets, including macroeconomics, cryptocurrencies, and other pertinent topics shaping the financial landscape. Stay informed on diverse market dynamics and emerging trends.
✅ Mastering the Mind: Delving into the Mental Game & Psychology of Trading
Gain insights into the psychological aspects of trading. Delve into discussions that address the mental challenges, mindset shifts, and strategies to cultivate resilience and success in the ever-evolving world of trading.
✅ Learn from the Best: Education & Mentorship by Alex & Pro Traders
Immerse yourself in a comprehensive learning experience with educational content and mentorship sessions led by Alex and other seasoned traders. Acquire the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate various market conditions successfully.
✅ Interactive Exploration: Q&A Zoom Meetings for Dynamic Learning
Participate in interactive Q&A Zoom meetings designed for dynamic learning. Pose questions, engage in discussions, and benefit from real-time insights, creating an enriching and collaborative learning environment.
Alex 🛡️✌️
GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (ES_F)
ES made a new high on Friday, fueled by META & AMZN earnings.
We are now retesting the 4963$ pivot on the futures, which I would like to see and break out of that pullback wedge.
So far the trend is still VERY strong and there is no reason to refute or doubt it.
NASDAQ (NQ_F)
NQ did not make a new high, but we retested and closed just below the 17793$ pivot on Friday.
Ideally, we’ll want to hold that 17646$ pivot and make a new high above 17793$ tomorrow.
RUSSELL 2K (RTY_F)
Small-cap can’t really find traction and take the lead. They are struggling around the 50dma, but still refuse to break down and make higher lows in the last 2 days.
I am watching that 65m structure, built with this 1981$ recent swingH pivot, and the UTL.
Which side we’ll brake that structure will tell of the ST direction.
Market Internals
Market Breadth & Extension (Stocks > 5, 20,50 & 200dma - short to long term view)
VST breadth flat around 50%
ST breadth Hooked back down on Friday. Back to flat 50% too.
MT/LT breadth is still elevated & extended, with the 50d keep pulling back here.
I’m watching that price structure for further market direction.
MOVE (Merrill Lynch Option Volatility Estimate - Bond market volatility)
Rejected & back below all kma’s.
10Y Bond Yields (daily)
Retesting kma’s and recent channel DTL. Normally a stock setup a would play short on that structure retest…but we’ll see how it goes with the bond yields.
US dollar index (DXY)
Retesting the 104.23$ structure level. Potential resistance?
We followed-through on Thursday’s rejection, and closed back at kma’s and recent structure DTL…key spot.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Kma’s reclaim, and we refused to break down from here. Let’s see if we can push back to 45k.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Mega/Large very strong due to META & AMZN earnings
Small/Micro red
Tech strong
Semis/Software/AI/Cloud very strong Friday
Leading themes charts (rank sorted):
1 Uranium URA
2 Semiconductors SMH
Confirmed the channel breakout on Friday. Looking good.
3 Software IGV
Building the right side handle following the DTL breakout.
4 Cloud Computing SKYY
5 Cybersecurity CIBR
Still 2x inside day, but like the tight action with higher lows above the 21dma.
6 Artificial Intelligence & Technology AIQ
Strong bounce and going for the new high attempt.
7 Homebuilders XHB
8 Gaming & eSports ESPO
9 Restaurant EATZ
10 Medical Devices IHI
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
FOCUSLIST
HIMS (Long ) daily/W/65m - HIMS & HERS HEALTH, INC. - Alert: 8.93, SL: 8.55
We tried to breakout of that tight channel retest on Friday, but didn't push much. This is still a valid setup with the 8.93$ pivot and above all kma's.
RKT (Long ) daily/W/65m - ROCKET COMPANIES, INC. - Alert: 12.6, SL: 12.16
Higher lows as we surf the 50dma and build tight right side around the 21dma. We made an inside day on Friday that will give us a great tighter entry.
GTLB (Long ) daily/W/65m - Gitlab Inc. - Alert: 72.23, SL: 69.63
A name that showed a lot of strength since the last earnings report. We retested the 10dma, and buyers really stepped on Friday. It also followed two weeks ago's base breakout, which we confirmed with the initial level retest (BORS on Jan. 24) and now the 10dma PB. Strong name to keep close.
ASO (Long ) daily/W/65m - ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS, INC. - Alert: 64.89, SL: 62.58
Retail showed a lot of RS last week, and ASO is setting up a very classic wedge as we build higher lows on the rising 21dma. Last Thursday was an inside day, that we closed above its high on Friday. I will look at Friday's high pivot to engage.
IOT (Long ) daily/W/65m - SAMSARA INC. - Alert: 32.6, SL: 30.81
The most hated name of fintwit might actually be ready to go here with that long-term BORL setup as we built that large wedge (LH & HL) as we surfed the rising 50dma. We broke out of DTL last Friday, so I would either play the 32.60$ pivot or Friday's high pivot.
SCANS
10dma pullback scan
GTLB MNDY
21dma pullback scan
RKT KD EXPE M PHM BBWI MKSI SIG FOUR ASO STX PATH AEO VTRS SYF FL SQ NET RPD HIMS RBLX IOT DFS ABNB FND TENB STLD LUV AAL BC HOG DG PYPL BECN DAL KMX ALGN GLBE
50dma pullback scan
RBLX FND BC HOG UA PYPL CELH BECN DAL KMX ROKU GNRC BYON CWAN
Continuation breakout scan
ZS GKOS SYF HQY
Bigger the base, higher in space scan
PCOR ABNB PLTR FRSH GLBE TTD OLLI SN BECN CUK CELH
Last week's top gainers - study material
NXT ARVN SYM HLIT EAT VRT CLS MOD WSC BOOT CLF MDB XPO FSLY NVDA DDOG DOCN DKNG SNOW ELF THC PLAY BLDR ESTC
Themes: Tech, Software, Consumer, Materials, Semis.
Continuation breakout: VRT WSC CLS NVDA ELF THC DKNG BLDR, etc
Pullback: ARVN SYM HLIT EAT MOD DDOG DOCN SNOW ESTC
EP: NXT BOOT
There are still many pullback setups, but we see more & more continuation breakouts in this week's scans. This is something to keep in mind as more stocks make new highs.
Good execution finding HLIT before moving last week in FL.
Caught DOCN move from FL and executed on it.
FSLY & BLDR were two positions that I cut too soon 2w ago.
MDB VRT SYM ELF DDOG ESTC all names that were shared & played in the PT community
We are in the right name, guys; we must continue identifying and executing these setups without jumping out too soon.
Again....study this list & scan EACH WKND, and find the correlation with your routine and what you can improve to put you in these setups week after week. That's how you improve your game.
What worked, and what do they have in common that I can replicate?
Those were the top performing liquid stocks, we want to catch those!
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
Stopped XBI at open
SNPS pushed well but has not hit 2R yet.
I opened new positions in STNE, SQ & DOCN, which I could hit 2R & de-risked all. That's the kind of momentum right as I buy that I like because I could go into the weekend with 38% new exposure while I have ZERO risk attached to it (as long we don't gap below SLs, right). That's how I build exposure fast at the right time without much risk involved. That's my type of progressive exposure.
Good execution with these three new trades. +1.42%ec on new exposure. +1.1%ec total.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
I really hope that you enjoyed it. If you did, please share it & hit the LIKE button so that more folks can be reached and this Newsletter can grow. :)