Alex's WEEKLY Market update & Focuslist - 03/24
Good reaction to a dovish FOMC meeting bring the market to ATH - what's next from here?
Good evening!
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Tonight’s daily report content
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM + Takeaways
General Market Analysis: NASDAQ - S&P 500 - RUSSEL 2K - OTHERS, including my daily levels & my bullish and bearish scenarios
Market Internals
Sectors & Themes Analysis
Focuslist including setups, alert levels & explanation (long & short)
Leaders list + Scans (technicals, fundamentals & potential TMLs)
My Portfolio Update
Economic Calendar
PrimeTrading Market Model #PTMM
There were mixed signals on Friday, as we saw some heavy selling come in to close the week.
NNH came off quite a bit after a nice increase post-FOMC.
Upside momentum hooked back down to a new low.
The 10-day ratio is back in negative territory, bringing back the PULLBACK market signal as the momentum can’t take off with that ongoing divergence still here.
ST to MT momentum hooked back down with Friday’s distribution day.
Despite these mixed signals, the uptrend remains up, as is confirmed by price, but the breadth & momentum divergence remain here, which is a bit concerning if we can’t see REAL momentum come in…and STAY sustained in this market. That’s something that I will monitor closely this week.
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GENERAL MARKET ANALYSIS
S&P500 (SPY)
The strong lockout rally continued last week with a breakout to the new ATH. It will likely continue higher from here.
NASDAQ (QQQ)
QQQs retested and bounced from 10wma last week and closed at the range high of $446.58$. We’ll want to see a breakout from that range next week.
RUSSELL 2K (IWM)
It's a pivotal week ahead. We must reclaim that recent base area and push to a new high. We bounced from 10wma last week, creating a potential higher low and shakeout to build some pressure to breakout.
OTHERS
RSP (S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF)
Still has a strong uptrend with a higher close than ever. The uptrend in the broad market is strong, and there is still no red flag.
Market Internals
Market Breadth & Extension (Stocks > 20,50 & 200dma - short to long term view)
We are still improving in the OB area.
We closed the week outside that structure, which is what we wanted to see. This is a good sign.
10Y Bond Yields (weekly)
Still squeezing below 4.33 and between the 10 & 30wma.
US dollar index (DXY)
This is a concerning action and could weigh on the equity market if not tamed. We saw a strong move post-FOMC, and we reclaimed all WMA from that channel structure breakout.
Green from open last week, but we are still below all kma’s and still no red flag in this market.
BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
Still pulling back after being extended. Normal reaction and the daily is looking prime for a continuation move.
SECTORS & THEMES ANALYSIS
Large/Mega leading last week
Seeing Comm. services, Discretionary, and Technology leading last week was good.
Homebuilders, Semis, IPO, Cloud strong
Solar, Uranium, Airlines, Software, Transport, and Steel are all sectors to watch with a weekly solid reversal.
Leading themes charts (rank sorted):
1 Semiconductors SMH
Weekly long setup
2 Blockchain Technology BLOK
Weekly long setup
3 Homebuilders XHB
Continuation breakout
4 Oil & Gas Exploration & Production PXE
Base breakout, but now extended. A base level retest or even shakeout in next few weeks could be very healthy to setup next leg higher.
5 IPO IPO
Weekly long setup
6 Copper Producers COPX
Normal digestion after strong breakout move. Maybe more needed in next few weeks.
7 Online Retail IBUY
The first natural reaction follows the stage 1 base breakout. This is likely just the beginning here.
8 Oil & Gas Equip. & Services PXJ
Base retest last week. Maybe some sideway action is needed here before breakout.
9 Cloud Computing SKYY
Weekly long setup
10 Natural Gas Producers FCG
There is still a strong uptrend and a potential 27.50$ base level retest is possible before a natural reaction & digestion.
Sectors & Themes ideas (weekly):
Here are the top sectors & themes I'll be watching this week for continuation breakout in already leading groups or potential turnaround setups.
BLOK - Blockchain/Crypto
Now, three weeks of digestion & sideway action as we let kma's catch up and build pressure in that range. If we can close above 36.20$ pivot next week, that would be very constructive.
IPO - IPO
IPOs group showed decisive action on increasing volume last week. This was the first pullback since the recent stage 1 base breakout, so seeing that bullish outside reversal on higher-than-average volume last week is constructive. It's likely a continuation breakout this week.
XBI - Biotech
The biotech sector has the first pullback since the stage 1 base breakout. We are three weeks into that pullback and found some support at the 10wma last week. A sector to watch for a potential reversal this week. We also saw some leading ind. names front-run the group late last week, which is often a precursor of the whole group action.
SMH - Semiconductors
We just had a two-week pullback, which I thought could be longer than this considering the recent run and reversal two weeks ago. We've made a bullish outside week here as well, and it looks constructive for a push this week.
SKYY - Coud computing
We have been building that tight wedge for the last six weeks now, and we are really getting tight on the right side just at the 10wma retest. This is one theme to watch closely this week.
SOCL - Social Media
14 weeks base in the making as we trade around the 10wma. That would be a big character change if we can push above that base level this week. It’s on watch, but there's no confirmation yet.
XRT - Retail
It's the first pullback since the stage 1 base breakout. Last week was a higher close, confirming the continuation setup.
CARZ - EV/future cars
tight handle just below base level for a potential breakout to watch this week.
IGV - Software
6 weeks base and now being super tight on the right side just above the 10wma. That would be a significant sector in which to see a breakout.
AIQ - Artificial Intelligence
2 weeks pullback and is still trading in that tight range just above the 10wma. A breakout of that range to a new high could lead to a trend continuation this week.
SLX - Steel
We're still building that tight cheat area right around the base level and 10wma, which we reclaimed last week. It looks ready for a breakout.
XME - Metals & Mining
The whole Metals & Mining sector is looking good for a potential breakout after 9 weeks of tight cheat area.
JETS - Global jets
10wma pullback and strong bounce last week. I will look for a continuation higher from here.
URA - Uranium
Uranium confirmed the reversal from the support area last week, so I expect some follow-through this week. That's a great R:R spot to initiate.
FOCUSLIST
Here's the weekly FL for next week.
As a reminder, weekly FL is built and shared on Sunday and based on weekly setups. This is easy to implement for folks working full-time who want to use stop orders and a more extended timeframe.
ACMR (Long ) weekly/daily - ACM RESEARCH, INC. - Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment - Alert: 31.39, SL: 29.45
725% avrg vol. PEG
10wma shakeout last week
wedge breakout, and reclaimed of all kma’s and PEG_AVWAP.
Retest of the AVWAP & 8dma on Friday, which confirms the reclaim
The weekly is quite wide with last week’s shakeout, but I will look at a tighter entry from the daily with the tight action we build here around the AVWAP. A 31.06 pivot reclaim could confirm the continuation higher.
XPO (Long ) weekly/daily - XPO, INC. - Freight & Logistics Services - Alert: 125.92, SL: 119.43
+150% avrg vol. PEG. Strong price move.
Consolidation since then, with a 21dma retest last week.
I will look at this two days tight pullback for an entry off the 126.22 pivot.
FROG (Long ) weekly/daily - FROG CELLSAT LIMITED - Communications & Networking - Alert: 45.4, SL: 42.06
+800% avrg vol. PEG.
Since then, we've been consolidating as we’ve built a higher low at the 21dma. We tried to reclaim the PEG_AVWAP and 8dma last week post-fomc, but we retested the $43.49$ range pivot on Friday.
I will look at the weekly entry; more time is needed to find a tight daily entry this week.
PSTG (Long ) weekly/daily - PURE STORAGE, INC. - Computers, Phones & Household Electronics - Alert: 53.26, SL: 48.89
+25% price PEG, but the volume was not that impressive.
A low cheat area breakout last week, and then we saw the first initial reaction to retest the 10dma on Friday.
We remain below the PEG_AVWAP, but we are building constructive action and a Friday’s high reclaim could be a perfect spot to iniaite low in the base.
When you dig a bit, PSTG is a pretty solid AI play with an interesting NVDA partnership.
Pure Storage Inc. PSTG is an enterprise flash data storage solutions provider in the Computer and Technology sector benefitting from the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. AI applications require high-powered GPUs currently dominated by Nvidia Co. NVDA and massive data storage capacity, which Pure Storage offers through its FlashBlade flash array storage systems. The combination of both hardware components is essential for AI-ready infrastructure (AIRI). Pure Storage and Nvidia are already partnered for AIRI built on Nvidia DGX systems utilizing its FlashBlade//S. Pure Storage shares surged 23% to all-time highs on its fiscal Q4 2024 earnings report.
VKTX (Long ) weekly/daily - VIKING THERAPEUTICS, INC. - Biotechnology & Medical Research - Alert: 72.08, SL: 63.65
+1300% avrg. vol. EP on drug news.
We have been digesting the move since then and are now trying to bounce & turn from the 21dma area.
I am looking at 2 days of tight pullback daily for a potential early entry lower in the base.
Biotech name, with added risk…size accordingly. Some clinical data are coming out this week, so it might not be playable if a big gap is seen.
DUOL (Long ) weekly/daily - DUOLINGO, INC. - Software & IT Services - Alert: 231.89, SL: 212.02
+450% avrg. vol PEG.
We are consolidating with higher lows at the 21dma since then.
We’ve made a higher high, then retest of 8dma & PEG_AVWAP on Friday. This looks like a higher low in formation, which I’ll be looking to play via Friday’s high pivot to confirm the reversal attempt.
DELL (Long ) weekly/daily - DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC. - Computers, Phones & Household Electronics - Alert: 115.77, SL: 104.66
+1000% avrg vol. PEG
21dma pullback since then.
Lase week’s bounce after higher lows from 21dma shows good support and potential reversal attempt.
Currently 2 days pullback, which Friday’s high pivot will be used for a potential reversal confirmation & entry.
CVNA (Long ) weekly/daily - CARVANA CO. - Specialty Retailers - Alert: 90.48, SL: 76.12
+500% avrg vol. PEG
We had a low-area breakout last week and are now pulling back to 8dma in what seems to be a healthy reaction.
Weekly still shows 3 weeks of tight action in that range.
SQ (Long ) weekly/daily - BLOCK, INC. - Professional & Commercial Services - Alert: 83.29, SL: 78
I still like SQ as we build the first stage 2 base after a mixed +400% average vol. PEG. We are pulling back after an 83.29 rejection, but I would watch how we react to that AVWAP/8dma/structure UTL area for potential support and fuel for a continuation breakout.
SCANS
10dma pullback scan
NET FROG
21dma pullback scan
NXT
50dma pullback scan
ILMN AAL FICO NOW STX INSP FTNT DDOG MPWR EL AMD
3-weeks tight scan
SAIA
Liquid young leaders pullback scan
COHR ARM UBER MKSI FROG ASML MEDP PLTR SWAV XPO SAIA DECK NXT
Liquid leaders pullback scan
JWN GTLB WAL AFRM JBL KSS MELI RMBS CMA DDOG X ZION PANW ESTC ARCH AMR PATH ZS MDB PBR.A INTC XP FN STNE
Last week's top gainers - study material
GPS MU LYFT CRDO BCC RKT ERJ MOD ACMR MODG ATMU SG DKNG APP VST LITE GTLS HIMS CAMT GEO VRT LIVN CROX WSM JWN GTLB AEO WIRE AVGO MTSI GGAL FTAI LNC NVMI VNO CVNA FND CEG ZG COHR CLF MMYT NVDA DUOL ANF CLS WAL AFRM SPT AXSM SPR NCLH ARCB SMG ITCI Z MTZ JBL IRTC KSS HOG PGNY TNDM AX BANC CUK OLLI SHAK MHO NET MAC COIN LSCC MNDY FRPT
Themes: Retail, Semis, Gaming/Leisure, Software, Transport, etc.
Setups: EP/PEG continuation, BO21 & 50pb setups., and base breakout.
EP/PEG continuation setups are dominating again, which explains why I focused on these setups last week. This week, study material confirms that the money is flowing in recent PEG winners.
Again....study this list & scan EACH WKND, and find the correlation with your routine and what you can improve to put you in these setups week after week. That's how you improve your game.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE
New positions in NTNX & OKTA
Trimmed 1/3 LQDA on open pop
Overall, it was a slow day - but it was a great execution and a good push from MRVI.
+0.39%ec on new exposure - good execution today.
71% exposure
I like how decoupled my PF action was today. Great RS and setting up very well into next week.
INTRADAY/CLOSED TRADES:
POSITIONS REVIEW:
STNG weekly/daily Still tightening around the 72.75 base level with volume drying up. A move is coming probably this week.
NTRA weekly/daily We saw a 2w tight breakout last week, but we failed to close at new high above 93.48$. We've made the first natural reaction in the last 2 days, and as long that we hold last week's high & kma's, we could still build pressure before a real push higher. No red flag here.
LQDA weekly/daily We saw that recent range continuation breakout on Friday, which confirmed the weekly potential continuation. We continue to trend above all kma's. As long we stay above 16.16$ & 8dma, some pullback action early this week could be healthy.
MRVI weekly/daily My top idea of last week did very weel, especially with a strong close action on Friday. We saw strong & tight action above PEG_AVWAP & the structure DTL all week before a strong push with a close above the 8.62$ base high level, which confirm the weekly continuation setup into next week. This is now my largest position and I will be looking to trade around my core if we can confirm the strong setup and start trending in the next few weeks.
AA weekly/daily After a shakeout to the 21dma last week, but saw a strong bounce and range breakout post-fomc. On the weekly, continuation seems to be confirmed with that close, and I'll be looking for some consolidation between 30.64 & 31.88 early next week before a potential breakout & continuation move higher.
NXT weekly/daily We are still trading in that 6 weeks base above the 10wma. Friday we saw the potential higher low I was looking for after another range low retest & breakout. I'll be looking for a continuation move at least to retest that base high area, and hopefully enough strength to breakout to new high. The only solar name in an uptrend, so if the sector wakes up, this could really become THE leading name.
OKTA weekly/daily A new position for me. From the weekly, we see a retest of the 2nd week low pivot, which is also create that range we've been trading in since ER. On the daily, The entry setup was a tight wedge breakout and retest of the prior low. Friday, we closed above the 105.77 recent swingH pivot, which confirms the reversal attempt for me. Let's see if it has leg from this bounce next week.
NTNX weekly/daily Also a new position. Another PEG continuation setup I was looking closely as we built tight action with higher lows at the 21dma, following 2 weeks of pullback action post-earning reaction. Friday, we made another higher low, with a recent swingH pivot reclaim, which confirms the reversal attempt out of that wedge. Let's see if we can push & breakout next week. I liked the RS it showed on Friday.
Important economic news/events (weekly)
REFERENCES
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